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probabilistic forecasting

45 papers

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Co-occurring keywords

time series forecasting (364) time series (435) multivariate time series (139) uncertainty quantification (1393) autoregressive model (456) diffusion model (3751) recurrent neural network (1790) state space model (390) quantile regression (95) variational inference (2069)

Papers

Towards High Resolution Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Forecasting from Sparse Observations AAAI 2026
DEEP: A Discourse Evolution Engine for Predictions About Social Movements AAAI 2026
Beyond MSE: Ordinal Cross-Entropy for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting AAAI 2026
Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting of Non-Parametric CDFs with Deep Lattice Networks AAAI 2026
Conditional Denoising Meets Polynomial Modeling: A Flexible Decoupled Framework for Time Series Forecasting IJCAI 2025
QuantileFormer: Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with a Pattern-Mixture Decomposed VAE Transformer IJCAI 2025
Probabilistic Forecasting of Irregularly Sampled Time Series with Missing Values via Conditional Normalizing Flows AAAI 2025
Probabilistic Forecasting with Generative Networks via Scoring Rule Minimization JMLR 2024
Latent Diffusion Transformer for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting AAAI 2024
Probabilistic Weather Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks NIPS 2024
Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with Correlated Errors NIPS 2024
Better Batch for Deep Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting AISTATS 2024
ProbTS: Benchmarking Point and Distributional Forecasting across Diverse Prediction Horizons NIPS 2024
AutoGluon–TimeSeries: AutoML for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting AUTOML 2023
Coherent Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Hierarchies AISTATS 2023
Modeling Temporal Data as Continuous Functions with Stochastic Process Diffusion ICML 2023
Regions of Reliability in the Evaluation of Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasts ICML 2023
PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Models NIPS 2023
Theoretical Guarantees of Learning Ensembling Strategies with Applications to Time Series Forecasting ICML 2023
Predict, Refine, Synthesize: Self-Guiding Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting NIPS 2023
SutraNets: Sub-series Autoregressive Networks for Long-Sequence, Probabilistic Forecasting NIPS 2023
Why Did This Model Forecast This Future? Information-Theoretic Saliency for Counterfactual Explanations of Probabilistic Regression Models NIPS 2023
pTSE: A Multi-model Ensemble Method for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting IJCAI 2023
Parity calibration UAI 2023
Coherent Probabilistic Aggregate Queries on Long-horizon Forecasts IJCAI 2022