conftrace_

probabilistic prediction

33 papers

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Co-occurring keywords

uncertainty quantification (1393) gradient boosting (147) probabilistic model (476) proper scoring rule (24) gaussian process (1200) diffusion model (3751) deep neural network (1803) calibration error (61) multimodal prediction (28) non-parametric method (49)

Papers

Around the World in 80 Timesteps: A Generative Approach to Global Visual Geolocation CVPR 2025
CoDiCast: Conditional Diffusion Model for Global Weather Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification IJCAI 2025
Predicting Language Models’ Success at Zero-Shot Probabilistic Prediction EMNLP 2025
Treeffuser: probabilistic prediction via conditional diffusions with gradient-boosted trees NIPS 2024
Wasserstein Gradient Boosting: A Framework for Distribution-Valued Supervised Learning NIPS 2024
Faster Recalibration of an Online Predictor via Approachability AISTATS 2024
Consistent and Asymptotically Unbiased Estimation of Proper Calibration Errors AISTATS 2024
MaxEnt Loss: Constrained Maximum Entropy for Calibration under Out-of-Distribution Shift AAAI 2024
Reciprocal Learning NIPS 2024
DNSMOS Pro: A Reduced-Size DNN for Probabilistic MOS of Speech INTERSPEECH 2024
From Classification Accuracy to Proper Scoring Rules: Elicitability of Probabilistic Top List Predictions JMLR 2023
Dirichlet Proportions Model for Hierarchically Coherent Probabilistic Forecasting UAI 2023
Online Platt Scaling with Calibeating ICML 2023
Probabilistic Symmetry for Multi-Agent Dynamics L4DC 2023
Modular Conformal Calibration ICML 2022
Gaussian Process Boosting JMLR 2022
Metrics of Calibration for Probabilistic Predictions JMLR 2022
Calibrated and Sharp Uncertainties in Deep Learning via Density Estimation ICML 2022
Calibrated Learning to Defer with One-vs-All Classifiers ICML 2022
Strictly Proper Contract Functions Can Be Arbitrage-Free AAAI 2022
Better Uncertainty Calibration via Proper Scores for Classification and Beyond NIPS 2022
Instance-Based Uncertainty Estimation for Gradient-Boosted Regression Trees NIPS 2022
Stop Measuring Calibration When Humans Disagree EMNLP 2022
CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction Using Trajectory Sets CVPR 2020
Adversarial Sparse Transformer for Time Series Forecasting NIPS 2020