conftrace_

probability prediction

3 papers

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Co-occurring keywords · papers mentioning both

event possibility (1) calibrated forecasting (1) model multiplicity (1) large language model (1) event likelihood (1) asymptotic calibration (1) binary outcome (1) language model prediction (1) possibility prediction (1) event probability (1)

Papers

Not quite Sherlock Holmes: Language model predictions do not reliably differentiate impossible from improbable events ACL 2025 Reconciling Model Multiplicity for Downstream Decision Making ICLR 2025 Does an Efficient Calibrated Forecasting Strategy Exist? COLT 2011