Approximating the Shapley Value Using Stratified Empirical Bernstein Sampling

The Shapley value is a well recognised method for dividing the value of joint effort in cooperative games. However, computing the Shapley value is known to be computationally hard, so stratified sample-based estimation is sometimes used. For this task, we provide two contributions to the state of the art. First, we derive a novel concentration inequality that is tailored to stratified Shapley value estimation using sample variance information. Second, by sequentially choosing samples to minimize our inequality, we develop a new and more efficient method of sampling to estimate the Shapley value. We evaluate our sampling method on a suite of test cooperative games, and our results demonstrate that it outperforms or is competitive with existing stratified sample-based estimation approaches to computing the Shapley value.