Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models to Support Biodiversity Conservation

AbstractLarge Language Models (LLM) provide significant value in question answering (QA) scenarios and have practical application in complex decision-making contexts, such as biodiversity conservation. However, despite substantial performance improvements, they may still produce inaccurate outcomes. Consequently, incorporating uncertainty quantification alongside predictions is essential for mitigating the potential risks associated with their use. This study introduces an exploratory analysis of the application of Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to assess the uncertainty of generative language models. To that end, we analyzed two publicly available language models (Falcon-7B and DistilGPT-2). Our findings suggest the viability of employing ECE as a metric to estimate uncertainty in generative LLM. The findings from this research contribute to a broader project aiming at facilitating free and open access to standardized and integrated data and services about Costa Rica’s biodiversity to support the development of science, education, and biodiversity conservation.