Modeling U.S. State-Level Policies by Extracting Winners and Losers from Legislative Texts

AbstractDecisions on state-level policies have a deep effect on many aspects of our everyday life, such as health-care and education access. However, there is little understanding of how these policies and decisions are being formed in the legislative process. We take a data-driven approach by decoding the impact of legislation on relevant stakeholders (e.g., teachers in education bills) to understand legislators’ decision-making process and votes. We build a new dataset for multiple US states that interconnects multiple sources of data including bills, stakeholders, legislators, and money donors. Next, we develop a textual graph-based model to embed and analyze state bills. Our model predicts winners/losers of bills and then utilizes them to better determine the legislative body’s vote breakdown according to demographic/ideological criteria, e.g., gender.