Predicting The Scholarly Impact of Research Papers Using Retrieval-Augmented LLMs

AbstractAssessing a research paper’s scholarly impact is an important phase in the scientific research process; however, metrics typically take some time after publication to accurately capture the impact. Our study examines how Large Language Models (LLMs) can predict scholarly impact accurately. We utilize Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) to examine the degree to which the LLM performance improves compared to zero-shot prompting. Results show that LLama3-8b with RAG achieved the best overall performance, while Gemma-7b benefited the most from RAG, exhibiting the most significant reduction in Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Our findings suggest that retrieval-augmented LLMs offer a promising approach for early research evaluation. Our code and dataset for this project are publicly available.