conftrace_

prediction market

17 papers

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Co-occurring keywords

mechanism design (340) bregman divergence (81) online learning (1777) stochastic optimization (1060) memoryless sequence (2) incentive compatibility (90) optimization algorithm (148) market maker (2) stochastic mirror descent (18) stochastic process (388)

Papers

LLM as a Risk Manager: LLM Semantic Filtering for Lead–Lag Trading in Prediction Markets ACL 2026
Hedging and Approximate Truthfulness in Traditional Forecasting Competitions AAAI 2025
A Synthetic Prediction Market for Estimating Confidence in Published Work AAAI 2022
Memoryless Sequences for General Losses JMLR 2020
Bounded-Loss Private Prediction Markets NIPS 2018
Memoryless Sequences for Differentiable Losses COLT 2017
A Decomposition of Forecast Error in Prediction Markets NIPS 2017
Convergence Analysis of Prediction Markets via Randomized Subspace Descent NIPS 2015
Market Scoring Rules Act As Opinion Pools For Risk-Averse Agents NIPS 2015
A Market Framework for Eliciting Private Data NIPS 2015
Multi-period Trading Prediction Markets with Connections to Machine Learning ICML 2014
Aggregating Predictions via Sequential Mini-Trading ACML 2013
An Introduction to Artificial Prediction Markets for Classification JMLR 2012
A Characterization of Scoring Rules for Linear Properties COLT 2012
Interpreting prediction markets: a stochastic approach NIPS 2012
Machine Learning Markets AISTATS 2011
A Collaborative Mechanism for Crowdsourcing Prediction Problems NIPS 2011